Hello,  

“How long will this last?”

“Will markets bounce back?”

“Should I make a change now?”

These are some of the most common and understandable questions people are asking right now. When the market takes a sharp turn, it’s only natural to wonder what comes next and how long it might take to feel confident in the markets and economy again.

Let’s start with where we are today.

Over the past two months, markets have fallen sharply. The S&P 500 is down more than 10% from its February highs, while the Dow is on track to lose more than 4%.¹

What’s driving the decline? It’s not one thing. It’s a mix of economic and political uncertainty.

Heightened trade tensions, aggressive new tariffs, public pressure on the Federal Reserve, and ambiguity around future rate cuts have all contributed.

But what everyone wants to know is, “When will things turn around?”

Of course, we don’t have a crystal ball. And you’ve heard this more than a few times before, but it’s worth repeating: past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Markets don’t always follow historical patterns, and downturns can deepen before recovery begins. Still, looking at long-term data can offer some much-needed context and perspective.

For starters, markets tend to fall fast.

Historically, based on data from over a century of S&P 500 returns, adjusted for inflation and including dividends, it has taken as little as six months for a 20% decline to reach its bottom. Even deeper drops, like 40% or 50%, have often found their low point in under two years.²

But getting back to where we started? That takes longer. Much longer.

On average, a 20% drop has historically taken about four years to recover. A 30% decline stretches to over seven years. A 40% drawdown? Nearly nine.²

These numbers reflect the real emotional challenge of investing, not just the drop itself, but the long, patient climb back to previous highs.

In other words, recoveries are less like flipping a switch and more like repairing a home after a storm. The damage can be done quickly, but rebuilding confidence, earnings, and momentum takes time.

We’ll admit, it can be surprising how long it can take for markets to fully recover.

Since the end of the Great Financial Crisis, we’ve been fortunate. U.S. markets have generally bounced back quickly from declines, sometimes in just months. That kind of speed can create a false sense of how recoveries typically work.

But when you zoom out and look at a broader stretch of market history, it becomes clear that fast recoveries are the exception, not the rule.

Over nearly a century of S&P 500 data, the pattern is clear. Deep declines often take years, not months, to fully heal. And for those who have only experienced the post-2008 era, this longer timeline can feel unexpectedly drawn out.

That said, there is reason to remain encouraged.

Historically, some of the strongest returns have come after the most difficult periods. Following the 10 worst calendar years since 1975, the S&P 500 delivered an average return of 17.5% one year later, compared to its average one-year return of 9.7% over the same broader time frame.

Over longer periods, the results are even more striking: an average 56% return after three years, and more than 200% after ten.³

Now we know you’ve heard this several times already, but here it is again: Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and downturns can deepen before a recovery begins. Still, history provides helpful context, and it reminds us that long-term discipline has often been rewarded.

So, what can you do right now?

Here are a few time-tested best practices we apply when markets turn volatile: 

• Hunt for pockets of value: Look for areas of the market that may be undervalued or overlooked, where long-term potential outweighs short-term noise.
• Keep a diversified portfolio: Spreading investments across regions, sectors, and asset classes reduces your exposure to any single area.
• Avoid trying to time the market: Staying invested through downturns can yield better results than jumping in and out based on emotion.
• Rebalance when needed: Adjusting your mix of stocks and bonds can help manage risk and keep your plan aligned with your goals.
• Consider downside protection: In some cases, alternative strategies or specific investment products can help buffer volatility.

We can’t avoid market declines, but we can prepare for them, navigate through them, and stay focused on long-term outcomes.

Warmly,

Your Eagle Wealth Team

P.S. If you're feeling uncertain or just want to check in on your strategy, we’re always here. These kinds of conversations are exactly why we plan ahead. So that when markets get noisy, you don’t have to navigate it alone.

Whether you’re looking for reassurance, a second opinion, or simply want to talk through the numbers, let’s connect. We’re here to support you every step of the way.

The Week on Wall Street

Stocks pushed higher last week, spurred by the White House's reassuring comments that progress was being made with trade talks.
 
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 4.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 6.73 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, adding 2.48 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 2.86 percent.^7,8

Markets Rally

Markets opened the week lower as investors continued to fret about China trade tensions. But sentiment quickly shifted.⁹

Stocks rebounded Tuesday following news that the administration intended to de-escalate tensions with China over tariffs. The rally extended through two more consecutive sessions as investors responded favorably to reassuring comments from the administration.

Markets also were encouraged after the president said he had "no intention" of firing the Fed Chair Powell. They also liked hearing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that the U.S. had an "opportunity for a big deal” with a key trading partner.^10,11

Megacap tech stocks, which had been under pressure for several weeks, regained momentum during the week, leading the market’s advance.^12,13

Housing Market Update

Fresh housing data released last week showed the median price for a newly constructed home ($403,600) and an existing home ($403,700) were virtually identical in March.

This is unusual.

Typically, the average new home costs more than the average existing home. But last month, the median new-home price while the median existing-home price rose and hit a new all-time high.¹⁴

<sup>1. CNBC.com, April 2025 [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/27/stock-futures-slip-ahead-of-busy-earnings-week-live-updates.html]
2. Shiller Data, 2025 [https://shillerdata.com/]
3. Market Declines: A History of Recoveries, 2025 [https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfse_resdwn_fly.pdf]
Chart sources:
Shiller Data, 2025 [https://shillerdata.com/]</sup>

^{4. CBS News, March 18, 2025 [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/social-security-benefits-ssa-death/?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-91ehGyhlYQzaKWq8wCYS9LUIPQ1U7iBeloei8K4vexM4TMwbSuRMXmRc6AiGAaiBOUSkSKaH25ddgjFHQmMTyudsdUNw&_hsmi=353230592&utm_content=352820171&utm_source=hs_email]}

^{5. Social Security Administration [https://www.ssa.gov/news/identity-proofing.html?tl=0%2C2%2C3]}

<sup>6. U.S. Department of Homeland Security [https://www.dhs.gov/real-id]
7. The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025
8. Investing.com, April 25, 2025
9. MarketWatch.com, April 21, 2025
10. CNBC.com, April 22, 2025
11. The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2025
12. CNBC.com, April 24, 2025
13. The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025
14. MarketWatch.com, April 24, 2025</sup>

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.  Copyright 2025 FMG Suite.}