Staying Steady Through Global Uncertainty

Eagle Wealth Management | Jun 23, 2025

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Before we begin today’s newsletter, we want to take a moment to acknowledge the recent events in the Middle East. Our thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected, and we stand together in hope for peace.

Hello,

It’s all over the news.

Footage of missiles lighting up Middle Eastern skies.

Long lines of cars fleeing Tehran.

Headlines warning of a broader war.

It feels big. And it is.

After a surprise Israeli strike on Persian nuclear and military targets, Iran fired back with missile attacks of their own.

Civilians are caught in the crossfire. Families are displaced, and lives are at risk. The situation is tense.¹

The human cost is what matters most.

Because of the position we’re in, we get questions from people worried about what this means for their financial future.

So while the human cost remains paramount, we also want to address the financial uncertainty many people are feeling. Right now, investors are rattled.

Stocks plunged.

Oil spiked.

Gold soared.

And Wall Street is bracing for more volatility.²

Investors have good reason to be nervous. But history tells us a more interesting story.

Now to be clear…

Traders might be right to freak out.

Why? Oil.

A large portion of the world’s oil supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping channel off Iran’s southern coast.³

If Iran tries to cut off that route, global energy prices could spike.

We’ve seen something like this before.

In the 1970s, a Middle East oil shock helped trigger double digit inflation and a brutal market downturn.

But fast forward to today, and things are different.

The U.S. is now a major energy exporter.⁴ Supply chains are more diversified. Markets have more tools and flexibility to adapt.

Of course, when headlines like this dominate the news, it’s easy to feel unsettled. But zooming out helps.

Recently, analysts at J.P. Morgan conducted a study of more than 80 years of geopolitical crises.

What did they find?⁵

In the first 3 months after a crisis, markets usually dip.
But after 6 to 12 months, returns tend to bounce back in line with long-term averages.

Of course, history just offers perspective, not predictions. No one knows how this will unfold or how markets will respond.

But the data does reveal something interesting…

… just because markets react fast to geopolitical events doesn’t mean they stay down.

Think of these crises like a smoke alarm going off when you burn your bagel.

Loud and jarring? Yes. But not a sign your kitchen’s on fire.

S&P 500 Return After Geopolitical Events Chart

If market reactions to crises tend to be temporary, then what contributes to long-term returns?

Earnings: When companies grow profits, their stock values usually rise. Last quarter, companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings jumped 12% over last year.⁶

Consumer Confidence: When people feel good about their jobs and finances, they tend to spend more. That spending supports businesses and drives the economy. Lately, consumer confidence has been rising, giving markets another reason to stay resilient.⁷

Interest Rates: When borrowing gets more expensive, growth can slow down. But if rates stay stable or drop, it opens the door for companies and consumers to spend more. Right now, central banks are playing it cautiously and holding steady.⁸

Inflation: Runaway inflation can hurt everyone. But when it’s under control, it creates a solid foundation for growth. The good news? Inflation has cooled since the pandemic spike. The last reading suggests prices are stable.⁹

Events like these weigh on all of us—both as human beings concerned about global stability and as investors worried about our financial future.

Since your portfolio is built around your goals and properly diversified, it's designed for moments like this.

Still feeling uncertain? Let's talk it through. We’re here to help.

No panic. Just perspective.

Warmly,

Your Eagle Wealth Team

P.S. If you know someone who's losing sleep over their investments right now, feel free to share this perspective. Sometimes context is the best antidote to anxiety.

Results of the Fed's June Meeting

Understanding the Fed's policy stance and economic projections is important for long-term financial planning. Their decisions have a big impact on interest rates, investment returns, and overall market conditions.

Here are some key points to consider:

• The Fed held rates steady at 4.25-4.5% for the third consecutive meeting, citing increased economic uncertainty and rising risks of both higher unemployment and inflation. Since March, they’ve taken a more cautious view in their projections.

• Economic growth is expected to slow to 1.4% for 2025, down from earlier estimates. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation—the measure of how much we pay for everyday goods and services—is projected to remain elevated at 3% by year-end, which is above the Fed's 2% target.

• Recent inflation data shows some cooling. As of May, the Consumer Price Index is at 2.4%, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) is at 2.1%. The core measures are still a bit high at 2.8% and 2.5% respectively, indicating persistent price pressures.

• Despite the mixed signals, the Fed emphasized that "Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace."

The chart below shows the Fed's dot plot projections, which illustrate that Fed officials still expect two rate cuts in 2025.

So, while there’s a lot of uncertainty, the takeaway is that the Fed is keeping a cautious stance. And we’ll maintain our long-term perspective to navigate through various economic cycles and policy changes.

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

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Staying Steady Through Global Uncertainty

Staying Steady Through Global Uncertainty

Results of the Fed's June Meeting

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