The Power in Uncertainty

Eagle Wealth Management |

 

You’ll often hear that investors or markets "hate uncertainty."  And that causes market drops and volatility.

Why do we hate uncertainty so much?

How can we look past our initial reactions and embrace the power of uncertainty?  

Let’s start by answering a basic question: Why do markets, investors, and humans hate uncertainty so much?  Well, for one, humans are wired to prefer predictability and certainty.  And firms, traders, and other market players rely on forecasts and models.

When something big happens that throws the future in doubt (which happens pretty regularly), it makes their predictions and models inaccurate.

For long-term investors who measure success in years and decades, these blips can fade into the background noise.  For short-term traders who need to show success in days and months, it’s a pretty destabilizing experience.

That freaks people out.  And often leads to drops, volatility, and other extreme market behaviors.

How do we look past initial reactions and embrace the power of uncertainty?  We can calm the noise and seek out information we can trust.

Here’s a few tips if you’re looking for a new perspective to find the silver lining hiding inside all the uncertainty.

  • One: View it as a reality check.  Uncertainty is grounding.  It shows us, sometimes painfully, that we don’t know as much as we think we do.  So, let’s embrace humility and accept how little we really know.
  • Two: Be grateful for what we have.  What are you truly grateful for right now? Now’s a chance to appreciate and be thankful for what we CAN be certain of.  No matter what’s going on in the world, we all have blessings in our lives.
  • Three: Embrace resilience.  We all have an inner core of steel that’s only visible when something scratches the surface. Uncertainty challenges us to improvise, flex with the times, and build up our inner resources.

If you’re struggling with the uncertainty of current events, please make sure to join us this week for our live webinar on Thursday at 1pm (see below), or reach out directly to us.  We’re always happy to talk with you. 

Until next week,
Your Eagle Wealth Team


Register Today — Eagle Wealth Exclusive Live Webinar!

We invite you to join Chad Staskal, CFP®, Managing Partner of Eagle Wealth Management, and City National Rochdale Portfolio Manager, Robert Meckstroth, CFA, for a private webinar on the latest developments and what's ahead for the economy and markets. In this conversation, we'll examine what's happened in the past quarter and discuss everyone's big question — where do we go from here?

What we'll cover:

  • Federal Reserve policy changes
  • Rising inflation
  • Ongoing war in Ukraine
  • Recent market volatility

LIVE WEBINAR

Thursday, May 5th, 2022

1:00 pm PST

REGISTER NOW


You’re Invited on May 6th to our Eagle Wealth Shred & Sip Event

Our shred event is next Friday!  Please drop by the Eagle Wealth parking lot for a late afternoon Shred & Sip on Friday, May 6th from 3:30 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.   Come say hello to the team, enjoy drinks and small bites from Board in Bend, and meet Hans and Kim from our tax team if you haven’t had the chance to yet. 

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We’ve asked Data Delete of Oregon to be at our office to shred your documents for free.  Afterwards, you’re welcome to leave your car in our parking lot, make a night of it, and head downtown to the First Friday ArtWalk!

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Eagle Wealth Celebrates Tax Day with a Cycle Pub Tour

We survived our first tax season with our newly formed Eagle Wealth Accounting team!  (You can read more about our tax services here.)

Our tax team had their noses to the grindstone the past few months so we figured what better day to celebrate than Tax Day.   Eagle Wealth partners Chad and Mat told the team to prepare for an afternoon “special training”.  Secretly, they arranged a cycle pub for the team to cruise downtown Bend while enjoying local beer.

It was an afternoon filled with well-deserved relaxation, a bit of biking, and a lot of laughter.

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The Week on Wall Street

On Friday, a sharp sell-off sent major stock market indices into negative territory for the week, capping a volatile close to April.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.47%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 tumbled 3.27%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 3.93% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 3.33%.1,2,3

 

Stocks Slide

Trading was volatile in the final week of April as investors struggled with the crosscurrents of global economic growth anxieties stemming from widening COVID-related lockdowns in China and a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports.

Monday set the tone for the week. Stocks staged an intraday reversal, wiping out a deep morning decline to end the day higher. After broad losses on Tuesday and a choppy session on Wednesday, stocks mounted a powerful rally Thursday thanks to positive corporate earnings reports, overcoming a disappointing first-quarter Gross Domestic Product report. Stocks could not sustain Thursday’s momentum, as Friday witnessed a broad-based retreat to cement another week of losses. 

Economy Contracts

Following the torrid 6.9% annualized GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter, economists had expected economic growth to moderate to about a one-percent gain in the first quarter. Instead, the economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.4%, dented by a slowdown in inventory investment by businesses, a jump in the trade deficit, and a decline in defense spending.

Consumer spending held up, rising 2.7%, though the gain was amid higher prices. Some economists expect the economy to resume its expansion for the remainder of the year, which may be one reason investors shrugged off the negative surprise.4

 

THE WEEK AHEAD:

KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.
Tuesday: Factory Orders. Job Openings and Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
Wednesday: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Announcement. Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index.
Thursday: Jobless Claims. 
Friday: Employment Situation.

Source: Econoday, April 29, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.


 THE WEEK AHEAD:

COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Pfizer, Inc. (PFE), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS), Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU).
Wednesday: CVS Health Corporation (CVS), Twilio, Inc. (TWLO), Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT), eBay, Inc. (EBAY), Booking Holdings, Inc. (BKNG), Match Group, Inc. (MTCH).
Thursday: Block, Inc. (SQ), Illumina, Inc. (ILMN), Shopify, Inc. (SHOP), Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD), ConocoPhillips (COP), AnheuserBusch InBev (BUD), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VRTX), Kellogg Company (K), Air Products and Chemicals (APD).

Source: Zacks, April 29, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.