Making Room for Hope

Eagle Wealth Management |

On a scale of 1 to 10, how hopeful are you feeling about 2023?

We’ve seen A TON of headlines talking about recessions, layoffs, and market fears over the past few weeks.  And what we should be doing to stave off the worst.  It’s prudent to plan ahead and reef the sails before the storm strikes.

But are we going overboard?  Are we being TOO negative?

It's a normal human reaction to try to foresee and prepare for the worst.  But that can sometimes lead us to act as though the worst-case scenario is a foregone conclusion.

What if we're not making enough room for good things to happen?

While the risk of a recession next year is real, it's not a given — it’s one of many predictions.

The Wall Street Journal survey of economists puts the risk of a recession within 12 months at 63%.1  On the other hand, Goldman Sachs puts the probability of a 2023 recession at just 35%.2

No one knows what will happen for certain, but it doesn't look like a recession is just around the corner.

Recent layoffs are getting big headlines, but they aren’t widespread.3

In fact, there's still a chance that we could avoid a recession or experience only a mild downturn. 

Especially if inflation has truly peaked.  (Fingers crossed!)

There are likely to be stormy waters ahead, especially for employees affected by layoffs, but as we enter the final weeks of the year, we want to highlight some signs of hope:

Hopeful sign #1: The latest data shows that the U.S. economy grew nearly 2.9% in the third quarter.4

Hopeful sign #2: Economists think the economy will grow again in the fourth quarter as well.

Hopeful sign #3: The Fed might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes soon.5

It’s true, we're still in challenging conditions as we approach 2023.   More volatility is very likely in store for us.  But let's make room for optimism and positivity.

Good things are in store as well.

Before we go, here’s a few more bits of good news from 2022:

  • We learned that U.S. child poverty plummeted 80% between 1993 and 2021.6
  • Scientists discovered a way to help identify babies at risk for sudden infant death syndrome.7
  • Voters elected the first Gen Z member of Congress.8
  • A record number of sea turtles laid nests on the Georgia coast.9

What other wonderful things happened this year?  What good news do you have to share with us?

Your Eagle Wealth Team

Health Insurance Marketplace Deadline

If you’re planning on purchasing healthcare through the Health Insurance Marketplace, keep an eye on the open enrollment deadlines. 

The 2023 Open Enrollment Period runs from November 1, 2022, through January 15, 2023.  But if you need coverage to start by January 1st, 2023, the deadline to enroll is this Thursday, December 15th.   

Here’s a checklist of items to gather to complete your application.  (Hint: You’ll need your estimated modified adjusted growth income for 2023). 

Please give us a call if you have questions.  We’re happy to help.


Toys for Tots Box at Eagle Wealth

The Eagle Wealth Marine Toys for Tots box is starting to fill up, but we still need your help!  This national organization distributes toys to less fortunate children during the holiday season, spreading hope and joy to others. 
We’ll match every toy donated, so please join us in the fun!  Drop by our office with a (new and unwrapped) toy.  We’ll collect gifts until December 21st.
Click here for more information about the program.
P.S.  If you live outside of Central Oregon you can still participate.  Let us know if you make a donation locally and we'll put another toy in the box.


The Week on Wall Street

Recession fears and concerns that the Fed may consider a longer rate-hike cycle sent stocks lower for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.77%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 3.37%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 3.99% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dipped 1.09%.1,2,3


Stocks Slide

Stocks were under pressure much of the week due to resurgent recession fears and concerns that Fed rate hikes may go higher for longer than current expectations. There was some good news last week on the economic front and out of China, which started to loosen COVID restrictions. But it was a week where good news was considered bad news, as any signs of economic resilience stoked worries of a longer rate-hike cycle.

Higher continuing jobless claims signaled economic softness, triggering a Thursday rally. But stock prices were under pressure Friday following a disappointing Producer Price Index (PPI) number.


Producer Inflation Disappoints

The Labor Department reported that the PPI rose 0.3% in November and 7.4% from a year ago. Though wholesale prices inflation rose at the slowest 12-month pace since May 2021, they exceeded market expectations. Price pressures were felt most in the services sector, where costs rose 0.4% after a 0.1% increase the month before. Goods inflation eased to a rise of 0.1%, a sharp drop from its October gain of 0.6%.4

Though the PPI number dented the optimism around cooling inflation, November’s PPI report represented an improvement from its 11.7% peak in March.5  



Tuesday:  Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite. Factory Orders. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index.
Wednesday:  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement.
Thursday:  Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. Industrial Production.
Friday:  Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite


Source: Econoday, December 9, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.


Thursday:  Adobe, Inc. (ADBE).
Friday:  Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI).

Source: Zacks, December 9, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Disclosures and Footnotes

Any companies mentioned are for informational purposes only, and this should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of their securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance.

Market Update
1. The Wall Street Journal, December 9, 2022
2. The Wall Street Journal, December 9, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, December 9, 2022
4. CNBC, December 9, 2022
5. CNBC, December 9, 2022

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.