U.S. Credit Downgrade: Hype vs. Reality

Eagle Wealth Management |

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Hello,  

One of the world’s top credit rating agencies just made a move no one wanted to see, and the financial media took notice.

Last week, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. from Aaa to Aa1.Their concerns? Rising debt, persistent deficits, and a new budget bill proposal.

As you might have guessed, that triggered a wave of bold claims from news outlets.

So, should you panic, sell everything, and build a bunker? Not quite.

Let’s take a look at what this debt rating downgrade actually means…

Think of credit ratings like a country’s credit score. For years, the U.S. had a perfect 800. High income. Clean payment history. Strong reputation.

But lately, it’s like we’ve been racking up credit card debt. Income’s still solid, but lenders are starting to raise their eyebrows.

That’s pretty much what happened here. While this downgrade isn't great news, it wasn’t a total shock either. Moody’s has been sounding the alarm for a while.

Moreover, despite its growing tab, the U.S. still has a lot going for it. Its debt is backed by the deepest, most dynamic economy in the world. Its borrowing is backed by the most powerful military. And its financial system remains the global gold standard.

To continue with our credit rating analogy, the U.S. just dropped from an 800 to maybe a 780.

Still excellent. We’re still one of the best borrowers in the world. But lenders are starting to watch a little more closely. The fundamentals are strong: steady income, unmatched global influence, and the ability to meet every payment.

This downgrade is a ding, not a disaster. But it still matters.

How much the government pays to borrow money sets the benchmark for everyone. Higher yields can lead to higher mortgage rates, pricier car loans, and bigger credit card bills. If you’re thinking about borrowing (or already are) this change could hit close to home.

In other words, it’s not just Wall Street feeling the impact. Rising rates touch wallets in places like Nashville, garages in Des Moines, and retirement plans in Phoenix. Think higher monthly payments, slower home sales, and tighter margins for growing businesses.2

For savers and income-focused investors, however, higher yields could be good news. If you’ve been sitting on cash or exploring fixed income, you could see more attractive bond opportunities, stronger CD rates, or better returns on money markets.

That said, things could stay bumpy for a while. Credit downgrades don’t shake the core strength of the U.S. economy, but they do stir uncertainty, and markets tend to wobble when interest rate stability feels shaky.

Looking ahead, the pressure is still building.

Lawmakers are debating new tax cuts and spending plans that could add to the deficit. The more the debt grows, the more we pay in interest. That could mean more downgrades down the road and even higher borrowing costs.

Federal Debt Held by the Public

This also puts the Federal Reserve in a tough spot. Chair Jerome Powell is trying to fight inflation without crushing growth. Rate cuts might take longer. Swings in the market could stick around.

Still, let’s not get too carried away. This isn’t the first credit rating agency to cut America's credit rating.

S&P, another major ratings agency, downgraded the U.S. in 2011.3  Fitch followed suit in 2023.4

Both caused short-term waves. But those who stayed the course over the long haul saw positive results.

The U.S. is still the anchor of the global financial system, even if the shine is a little dimmer today.

In other words, last week’s news doesn’t mean the sky is falling. The U.S. still has a deep, dynamic economy and remains a global financial leader. Credit ratings shift, headlines come and go, but long-term planning is what really moves the needle. If your goals haven’t changed, your strategy may not need to either.

Stay focused. Stay steady. Stay invested in what matters.

Sincerely,

Your Eagle Wealth Team

P.S. If you’re planning a big purchase, reviewing your debt, or just want to check how all this affects your portfolio, let’s talk. These moments don’t call for panic. But they do call for a plan.

Know someone who’s unsure how this downgrade affects them? Feel free to connect with us. We’re happy to help make sense of it.


 

Remembering Our Fallen Heroes This Memorial Day

We hope you took time over the weekend, especially yesterday, to honor the brave service members who made the ultimate sacrifice in defense of our nation. This solemn day of remembrance gives us an opportunity to reflect on the profound cost of freedom and the extraordinary courage of those who gave their lives to protect it.

We offer our sincere gratitude to these fallen heroes and their families. Their sacrifice is not forgotten.

Shadow of soldier saluting


Market Update

The Week on Wall Street

Stocks moved lower last week as fiscal fears and fresh tariff threats loomed over market sentiment.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.61 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.47 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.47 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.14 percent.5,6

Stocks Slip

On Monday, stocks were under a bit of pressure after credit rating agency Moody's downgraded the U.S. as an issuer of government bonds.7,8

Stocks remained under pressure midweek as Treasury yields moved higher with the 30-year bond hit a 19-month high. Investors fretted about the budget deficit; some feared the deficit would be made worse by the spending bill winding its way through Congress. After the House of Representatives approved the bill, bond yields backed off their highs and stocks went sideways.9,10

On Friday, stocks dropped after President Trump warned of a 50 percent tariff on European Union goods following an apparent stall in trade negotiations. At the same time, the administration also threatened a 25 percent tariff on any iPhones manufactured outside of the U.S.11

Unexpected Tariff News

The president’s fresh tariff talk ended a week or so of relative tranquility on the trade front. While the EU tariff threat may end with a deal similar to deals with other countries and regions, the iPhone issue may prove stickier.

Some analysts estimate that making iPhones in the U.S. would increase manufacturing costs by as much as 50 percent, which might increase the price of an iPhone.12


1. Moody’s, 2025 [URL: https://ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news/443154]
2. The Federal Reserve, 2024 [URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2024-03-mpr-summary.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com]
3. CNNMoney, 2011 [URL: https://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downgrade_rumors/index.htm]
4. FitchRatings, 2023 [URL: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023]
Chart sources: Congressional Budget Office, 2025 [URL:https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/60870-Outlook-2025.pdf]
5. WSJ.com, May 23, 2025
6. Investing.com, May 23, 2025
7. CNBC.com, May 19, 2025
8. CNBC.com, May 20, 2025
9. CNBC.com, May 21, 2025
10. CNBC.com, May 22, 2025
11. WSJ.com, May 23, 2025
12. MarketWatch.com, May 23, 2025

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