Stormy Summer?

Eagle Wealth Management |

Hello From EWM,

Clouds may be gathering. Should investors be worried about a storm?

Let’s look at some factors that could trigger a market selloff in the weeks or months ahead.

(Note: We’re not saying a selloff is definitely going to happen — we want you to be prepared if it does.)

Factor #1: Stocks are trading near record highs

Stocks have posted multiple record closes, and the S&P has been trading well above its 200-day moving average.1,2

When stocks repeatedly push new highs, it’s not uncommon to see a pullback as traders take profits.

Factor #2: Investors are watching the Fed like hawks

The 2024 rally is largely driven by the expectation of lower interest rates.
The Fed voted to keep rates steady at its most recent meeting, which wasn't a surprise since the latest data didn't show enough improvement in inflation.3
At this point, the market is pricing in the expectation of a fall rate cut.4
However, if the Fed indicates that it will delay rate cuts into 2025, markets may drop as investors revise their expectations.
Given that the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada recently voted to cut interest rates, it doesn’t seem likely that the Fed will be far behind.5,6
Factor #3: A “trigger event” could cause a selloff
Sometimes, even when overall conditions look good, a single event causes investor psychology to flip and markets to drop.
We can’t predict these events, but we can accept that they show up occasionally and build flexibility into our investing approach.
The chart below shows market drops in the S&P 500 since 2000. 
You can see that markets have fallen at least 10% in the vast majority of years.

However, most of those years still ended in the green.
The big takeaway? Market drops are normal. They happen frequently.
Should you sit on the sidelines to wait out the uncertainty?
There’s an old investing adage that may have made sense once: “Sell in May and go away.”
The idea is that an investor ought to sit the summer out and buy back in later in the year. 
That folksy advice might have made sense back in a more industrial economy when American factories would shut down during the summer to retool and give employees time off.
Today, that kind of advice simply doesn’t match our complex world.
Markets move quickly, and sitting on the sidelines often means missing out on the recovery.
The overall case for the economy and stocks remains bullish. We’d like you to relax and enjoy the beginning of summer with your family and friends.
We’re watching closely so you don’t have to and will reach out as needed.
Your Eagle Wealth Team


Your Support Got Us Here – Now Let’s Win This!

We’re thrilled to share that we’ve made it to the final round of the Best of Bend competition in the Bend Bulletin! A huge thank you to everyone who voted for us in the first round.

Could you please take a moment to vote for us?

The details:
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We’re so grateful for your trust and referrals over the years. Thank you for being part of our story and helping us reach this point, and thank you for considering voting for us!



The Week on Wall Street

Stocks notched a solid gain last week, driven by the Fed’s decision, May's inflation report, and Apple’s AI-related news.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.58 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite picked up 3.24 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has lagged most of the year, slid 0.54 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.44 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.7

S&P 500, Nasdaq Lead; Dow Lags

Market leadership took a familiar form. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led while the Dow trailed for the second week (and four out of the past six weeks).8

Stocks trended higher at the start of the week as investors cheered an artificial intelligence update from Apple.9,10

By midweek, the market had split, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 moving higher while the Dow lagged. Investors were upbeat after learning that consumer prices rose less than expected in May and that the Fed decided to keep rates steady. However, some investors were unsettled after learning Fed officials had shifted their outlook and now only penciled in a single rate cut between now and year-end. A few months ago, the Fed had indicated as many as three cuts were possible.11

Busy Week For News 

Last week was chock full of market-moving events. Between Apple’s AI update, inflation, and the Fed, it was a toss-up which one influenced sentiment the most.

AI’s outsized role in driving market momentum continued last week. OpenAI’s deal with Apple arrived at the start of last week, and the news followed OpenAI’s deal earlier this year with Microsoft. (These companies are mentioned for illustrative purposes only; it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold this or any security.)12

Wednesday morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced. A few hours later, the Federal Open Market Committee updated its monetary policy. Those pieces of news have only arrived together 13 times since 2008.

The FOMC kept rates steady at the current 5.25-5.50 percent target range, a widely expected decision. However, the tame CPI report caused some volatility as investors grappled with how the report may influence Fed policy.13,14


Any companies mentioned are for informational purposes only, and this should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of their securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Source:, June 15, 2024. Weekly performance is measured from Monday, June 10, to Friday, June 14. TR = total return for the index, which includes any dividends as well as any other cash distributions during the period. Treasury note yield is expressed in basis points.
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Advisory Services offered through My Legacy Advisors, LLC dba Eagle Wealth Management, a registered investment advisor. Confidential Information: This message and any attachments contain information from Eagle Wealth Management, which may be confidential and/or privileged and is intended for use only by the addressee(s) named on this transmission. If you are not the intended recipient, or the employee or agent responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, you are notified that any review, copying, distribution or use of this transmission is strictly prohibited. If you have received this transmission in error, please (i) notify the sender immediately by e-mail or by telephone and (ii) destroy all copies of this message.

Chart sources:
7. The Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2024
8. The Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2024
9. The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2024
10., June 12, 2024
11. The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2024
12 The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2024
13.  The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2024
14., June 10, 2024


Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

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